Climatic change and extinction risk of two globally threatened Ethiopian endemic bird species

Climate change is having profound effects on the distributions of species globally. Trait-based assessments predict that specialist and range-restricted are among those most likely to be at risk extinction from such changes. Understanding individual species’ responses climate therefore critical for informing conservation planning. We use an established Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) protocol describe curious range-restriction globally threatened White-tailed Swallow ( Hirundo megaensis ) a small area in southern Ethiopia. find that, across range modelling approaches, distribution this well described by two climatic variables, maximum temperature dry season precipitation. These same variables have been previously found limit unrelated but closely sympatric Ethiopian Bush-crow Zavattariornis stresemanni ). project future suitability both under scenarios approaches. Both severe within next half century, as 68–84% (for swallow) 90–100% bush-crow) their current ranges predicted become unsuitable. Intensive measures, assisted migration captive-breeding, may only options available safeguard these species. Their projected disappearance wild offers opportunity test reliability SDMs predicting fate Monitoring changes abundance bush-crow particularly tractable because its nests conspicuous visible over large distances.